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| OREN3000 | Decision making and forecasting techniques | 2+0+0 | ECTS:4 | | Year / Semester | Spring Semester | | Level of Course | First Cycle | | Status | Elective | | Department | DEPARTMENT of FOREST INDUSTRY ENGINEERING | | Prerequisites and co-requisites | None | | Mode of Delivery | Face to face | | Contact Hours | 14 weeks - 2 hours of lectures per week | | Lecturer | Dr. Öğr. Üyesi İbrahim YILDIRIM | | Co-Lecturer | | | Language of instruction | Turkish | | Professional practise ( internship ) | None | | | | The aim of the course: | | Problem configuration correctly, to gain the ability to understand the structure of the decision problem and to choose the appropriate methods. The aim of the course is to provide to students with ability of using prediction methods properly, interpreting forecasting results and statistical importance of them correctly, and decision making according to the results. |
| Learning Outcomes | CTPO | TOA | | Upon successful completion of the course, the students will be able to : | | | | LO - 1 : | Can organize and make the right decisions in an efficient for forward-looking decisions | 2,5,8 | 1,3 | | LO - 2 : | Develop their basic data analysis capabilities required in the context of forecasting techniques, learn forcasting methods, their characteristics and differences. | 2,5,8 | 1,3 | | LO - 3 : | Determine the relationship between forecasting methods and the problem. Decide proper model for related forecasting method. | 2,5,8 | 1,3 | | LO - 4 : | Interpret the forecasting results and provide suggestions based on the results. | 2,5,8 | 1,3 | | CTPO : Contribution to programme outcomes, TOA :Type of assessment (1: written exam, 2: Oral exam, 3: Homework assignment, 4: Laboratory exercise/exam, 5: Seminar / presentation, 6: Term paper), LO : Learning Outcome | | |
| Decision Theory, Decision Making Process, Types of decision making, Framework of Planning Decisions, Importance of Forecasting, Forecasting Methods: Time Series Methods, Moving Average Methods, Weighted Average Methods, Exponential Smoothing Methods, Simple and Multiple Linear Regressions. |
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| Course Syllabus | | Week | Subject | Related Notes / Files | | Week 1 | Decision making, decision making theory, quantative decision making | | | Week 2 | The neccessity of decision analysis | | | Week 3 | Decision making process | | | Week 4 | Basic steps of decision analysis | | | Week 5 | Types of decision making | | | Week 6 | The basic statistics, role of forecasting techniques in decision making and overview of forecasting methods | | | Week 7 | Forecasting Process: Data collection, data analysis and formats, forecasting model selection, evaluation of forecasting results | | | Week 8 | Time series analysis and trend analysis | | | Week 9 | Midterm exam | | | Week 10 | Moving averages method | | | Week 11 | Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Methods | | | Week 12 | Forecasting with regression methods, and simple linear regression | | | Week 13 | Forecasting with multiple regression | | | Week 14 | Homework presentations | | | Week 15 | Homework presentations | | | Week 16 | Final Exam | | | |
| 1 | Operasyonel, Yönetsel ve Stratejik Problemlerin Çözümünde Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri, Dora Yayınları, Bursa, Yıldırım, B. F. ve Önder E., 2014. | | | 2 | Business Forecasting (9th Edition), Prentice Hall, Hanke, J. E., Wichern D. W., 2009. | | | |
| 1 | Kantitatif Karar Verme Teknikleri (Yöneylem Araştırması), Alfa Yayınları, İstanbul, Halaç, O., 2001; | | | 2 | Forecasting: Methods and Applications (3rd Edition), Wiley, Makridakis, S., Wheelwright S. C., Hyndman R. J., 1998. | | | |
| Method of Assessment | | Type of assessment | Week No | Date | Duration (hours) | Weight (%) | | Mid-term exam | 9 | 16/06/2023 | 1,5 | 50 | | End-of-term exam | 16 | 06/07/2023 | 1,5 | 50 | | |
| Student Work Load and its Distribution | | Type of work | Duration (hours pw) | No of weeks / Number of activity | Hours in total per term | | Yüz yüze eğitim | 2 | 14 | 28 | | Sınıf dışı çalışma | 2 | 14 | 28 | | Arasınav için hazırlık | 6 | 4 | 24 | | Arasınav | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Ödev | 4 | 5 | 20 | | Dönem sonu sınavı için hazırlık | 6 | 4 | 24 | | Dönem sonu sınavı | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Total work load | | | 128 |
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